Moderate Risk # ..., ..., ..., ..., ..., Oh forget it, I lost count back on 3/12

Well, the Storm Prediction Center has issued yet another Day 1 Moderate Risk. This time, it is for south-central Kansas, western and central Oklahoma and the eastern Oklahoma panhandle, amd the eastern Texas panhandle and northwestern Texas.

SPC Day 1 Outlook (time sensitive)

The models show a potent system ejecting onto the Plains tomorrow. In front of it, CAPE values of up to 3000 J/kg will pool and helicities of up to 400 m**2 s**-2 will be in place. This should lead to the formation of supercells along the dryline, some with strong/violent tornadoes. I actually think that an upgrade to high risk is quite possible in later outlooks. I will update through the day as conditions warrant.